A day at the races: Delving into the balance between luck and skill

‘If a fund manager is successful…are they simply lucky with their calls?’

clock • 4 min read

Sometimes it is easy to distinguish luck from skill, David Jones write. Other times, maybe it’s not so straightforward.

Let's try a simple thought experiment designed to calibrate our appreciation of the problem. Let's say someone calls 20 coin tosses in a row correctly; is that luck or skill? I think we would all agree it was luck. However, if a champion darts player hits 180, we would probably say it was attributable to their skill and countless hours of practice. Winning at the roulette table? Luck. A professional player winning at poker? Skill, and some luck. Me hitting a hole-in-one in my first, and only, game of golf? Pure fluke—as evidenced by the rest of my scorecard. Tiger Woods getting a hole-in-on...

To continue reading this article...

Join Professional Adviser for free

  • Unlimited access to real-time news, industry insights and market intelligence
  • Stay ahead of the curve with spotlights on emerging trends and technologies
  • Receive breaking news stories straight to your inbox in the daily newsletters
  • Make smart business decisions with the latest developments in regulation, investing retirement and protection
  • Members-only access to the editor’s weekly Friday commentary
  • Be the first to hear about our events and awards programmes

Join

 

Already a Professional Adviser member?

Login

More on Investment

Technology cited as main barrier to private market access for advisers

Technology cited as main barrier to private market access for advisers

Follows Oliver Wyman’s and Clearstream’s private markets whitepaper

Sophia Panayi
clock 04 August 2026 • 3 min read
Ascot Lloyd links up with BlackRock for investment offering

Ascot Lloyd links up with BlackRock for investment offering

A move to a single investment provider

Isabel Baxter
clock 04 August 2026 • 2 min read
Beyond London: Adviser opportunities in regional investment

Beyond London: Adviser opportunities in regional investment

Hugi Clarke unpacks the regional growth agenda

Isabel Baxter
clock 31 July 2026 • 1 min read