The Value Perspective: Why the 'US presidential cycle' no longer works

Investment theory reassessed

clock • 7 min read

There are some plausible investment theories about US presidents and their time in the White House, says Andrew Williams, but none holds up nearly so well as a value-based strategy

As America heads to the polls today, you will of course be seeing no forecast from The Value Perspective as to who the 45th President of the United States will be. As we have argued in blogs such as Brexit's double illustration, no expert can predict the future - and, as we shall see, that includes no expert being able to predict when another expert is going to change their mind about predicting the future. When the highly regarded Financial Times columnist John Authers decided to write a piece last month entitled How it pays for investors to get timing right on US presidents, he presuma...

To continue reading this article...

Join Professional Adviser for free

  • Unlimited access to real-time news, industry insights and market intelligence
  • Stay ahead of the curve with spotlights on emerging trends and technologies
  • Receive breaking news stories straight to your inbox in the daily newsletters
  • Make smart business decisions with the latest developments in regulation, investing retirement and protection
  • Members-only access to the editor’s weekly Friday commentary
  • Be the first to hear about our events and awards programmes

Join

 

Already a Professional Adviser member?

Login

More on Equities

Alexandra Jackson: UK equities - going beyond the narrative

Alexandra Jackson: UK equities - going beyond the narrative

Economic recovery takes hold

Alexandra Jackson
clock 04 March 2026 • 3 min read
Love is… picking the right stock

Love is… picking the right stock

'We genuinely love each and every one of these companies when we take an initial position'

Gabriel Sacks
clock 13 February 2026 • 4 min read
Partner Insight: Can hedged equities turn volatility into opportunity?

Partner Insight: Can hedged equities turn volatility into opportunity?

You can't apply a static solution to a dynamic problem. Markets are constantly changing, and the way a portfolio is constructed needs to reflect that. Learn more about the role that hedged equities play in our multi-asset funds, helping to balance risk and return more effectively.

Orbis Investments
clock 28 October 2025 • 5 min read