Precise economic and investment forecasting is a mug's game, writes Peter Toogood, who instead puts forward three different scenarios for markets - while acknowledging any one of them could ultimately play out
Most people have now come to realise that, when the system is awash with liquidity and momentum is in charge, precise forecasting is a mug's game. As such, we would instead put forward three scenarios for markets - acknowledging that any of them could come to pass. * ‘Not too hot, not too cold' persists: Here, the China boom of 2017 creates lasting effects into 2018 and the co-ordinated global growth it has inspired continues. So ‘Goldilocks' continues, with all assets catching a bid - much like they did in 2017 - and inflationary pressures staying muted. In this eventuality, stay long o...
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