David Zahn: Looking to the Italian election and future ECB policy

No ECB rate rise before 2020

clock • 5 min read

This weekend's Italian election is not attracting the same attention as votes last year in France and Germany - but that is why, suggests David Zahn, an unexpected result might provoke an outsized market reaction

Most polls suggest there will be no outright winner in this weekend's Italian general election, which is set to take place on 4 March. The most likely outcome is either a technocrat government or a grand-coalition - neither of which is likely to have a dramatic impact on bond markets. It could be a different story, however, if one group were to win enough seats to form a government - particularly if that group were the coalition of centre-right parties currently riding high in the polls. The final opinion polls published ahead of the election suggest the coalition of centre-right part...

To continue reading this article...

Join Professional Adviser for free

  • Unlimited access to real-time news, industry insights and market intelligence
  • Stay ahead of the curve with spotlights on emerging trends and technologies
  • Receive breaking news stories straight to your inbox in the daily newsletters
  • Make smart business decisions with the latest developments in regulation, investing retirement and protection
  • Members-only access to the editor’s weekly Friday commentary
  • Be the first to hear about our events and awards programmes

Join

 

Already a Professional Adviser member?

Login

More on Economics / Markets

Partner Insight: Tariffs are here to stay. What's next for investors?

Partner Insight: Tariffs are here to stay. What's next for investors?

The current outlook for US tariffs is complex and their full impact on growth remains to be seen. Columbia Threadneedle Investments explores what advisers need to know, key events to keep top of mind and how to navigate the uncertainty.

Columbia Threadneedle Investments
clock 23 October 2025 • 5 min read
IFS: Reeves must plug £22bn fiscal hole to restore 'tiny' headroom

IFS: Reeves must plug £22bn fiscal hole to restore 'tiny' headroom

Think tank urges chancellor to avoid 'limping from one forecast to the next'

Linus Uhlig
clock 16 October 2025 • 2 min read
Why higher bond yields aren't causing a Mini-Budget meltdown

Why higher bond yields aren't causing a Mini-Budget meltdown

'One thing we know about Rachel Reeves is she will live or die by her fiscal rules'

Laith Khalaf
clock 07 October 2025 • 5 min read