David Zahn: Looking to the Italian election and future ECB policy

No ECB rate rise before 2020

clock • 5 min read

This weekend's Italian election is not attracting the same attention as votes last year in France and Germany - but that is why, suggests David Zahn, an unexpected result might provoke an outsized market reaction

Most polls suggest there will be no outright winner in this weekend's Italian general election, which is set to take place on 4 March. The most likely outcome is either a technocrat government or a grand-coalition - neither of which is likely to have a dramatic impact on bond markets. It could be a different story, however, if one group were to win enough seats to form a government - particularly if that group were the coalition of centre-right parties currently riding high in the polls. The final opinion polls published ahead of the election suggest the coalition of centre-right part...

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