Northern Rock could be just £2bn short of repaying its loan from the Bank of England by this time next year, according to New Star economist Simon Ward.
Ward says mortgage repayments by existing Rock borrowers could release £13bn in 2008 as a large number of fixed-rate deals expire. In addition, Ward says Rock’s attractive savings rates, coupled with the unlimited government guarantee, could lead to a £10bn inflow of retail deposits. “Adding a £10bn deposit inflow to mortgage repayments of £13bn would leave Rock only £2bn short of the estimated £25bn Bank of England loan,” he says. However, Ward says one risk to this scenario is that Rock could be forced to cut its savings rates to avoid charges of unfair competition. On top of that, Ro...
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