Anthony Rayner: A year of two halves

The first half of 2019 was, on an initial reading, unusual in that it was characterised by a strong rally that encompassed both risk-on and risk-off assets. This is very reminiscent of QE at its height, however, as the material driver of the cross-asset rally was central banks turning dovish, in response to slowing economic growth. In the absence of an inflationary threat, central banks are interpreting their primary role as to extend the economic expansion - now the longest since 1854 in the US. In the more financialised economies, such as the US and the UK, this has material implicatio...